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Hochwassergefährdung in der Schweiz
Überflutungskarten durch das BAFU und SwissRe
Das Bundesamt für Umwelt BAFU hat gemeinsam mit Swiss Re schweizweite Überflutungskarten erstellt. Damit besteht eine weitere Möglichkeit, um Gebiete erkennen zu können, die durch Hochwasser gefährdet sind.

2. Band des IPCC Sachstandberichts 2007 «Klimaänderung: Auswirkungen, Anpassungsoptionen und Verwundbarkeit»
Zusammenfassung für politische Entscheidungsträger in Brüssel veröffentlicht
2. Band des IPCC Sachstandberichts 2007 «Klimaänderung: Auswirkungen, Anpassungsoptionen und Verwundbarkeit»
Am 6. April wurde an einer Pressekonferenz in Paris die Zusammenfassung für Entscheidungsträger von Band 2 des IPCC Sachstandsberichts 2007 veröffentlicht. Der 2. Band umfasst das Sachwissen über die Auswirkungen, Anpassungsoptionen und Verwundbarkeit auf die Klimaänderung. Auch an diesem Bericht haben einige Schweizer Wissenschafter mitgearbeitet.
> Download Bericht in Englisch PDF (946 kB)

1. Band des IPCC Sachstandberichts 2007 «Wissenschaftliche Grundlagen»
Zusammenfassung für politische Entscheidungsträger
1. Band des IPCC Sachstandberichts 2007 «Wissenschaftliche Grundlagen»
Am 2. Februar wurde in Paris die Zusammenfassung für politische Entscheidungsträger der Arbeitsgruppe 1 («wissenschaftliche Grundlagen«) des neuen Wissensstandsberichts des IPCC (AR4) veröffentlicht. Der neue IPCC-Bericht 2007 enthält eine Zusammenstellung des aktuellen wissenschaftlichen Kenntnisstandes zu Fragen des Klimawandels.
> 1. Band des Sachstandberichts auf Englisch PDF (2845 kB)

ESPERE - Climate Encyclopaedia
Educational Network on Climate
ESPERE stands for Environmental Science Published for Everybody Round the Earth. It is a pilot project funded by the European Commission with the aim to put up-to-date and accurate scientific information on climate in a Climate Encyclopaedia on the web. The information is in a form which is understandable to all and useful in school lessons.

The Climate Encyclopaedia covers a broad range of topics, including the atmosphere, oceans, food and people changing climate. It gives either a fast overview called basics or detailed information with related worksheets.

You can find the web site at:
www.espere.net


Les contradictions entre les données de satellites et les températures mesurées à proximité du sol sont en grande partie éliminées
L'une des plus importantes questions ouvertes ayant trait à la compréhension du système climatique semble résolue : jusqu'ici, l'évaluation des mesures par satellites et par radiosondes de ces vingt-cinq dernières années n'indiquaient qu'une faible augmentation de la température dans les 10 km inférieurs de l'atmosphère terrestre. Ceci était en contradiction avec le fort réchauffement à proximité du sol et avec les résultats des modèles climatiques. Mais à présent, différents travaux publiés récemment ont montré que cette contradiction résultait en grande partie de problèmes tenant aux mesures et à leur évaluation. Une fois les erreurs de mesure prises en compte et mieux corrigées, les résultats des mesures sont en grande partie en accord avec les connaissances physiques et les modèles climatiques : les températures dans les 10 km inférieurs environ de l'atmosphère sont montées globalement à peu près autant ou un peu plus au cours des vingt-cinq dernières années que celles mesurées à proximité du sol, c'est-à-dire d'un demi degré, resp. d'env. 0.15 à 0.2°C par décennie. Ainsi un grand point d'interrogation relatif à la reproduction correcte des changements climatiques par les modèles existants a en grande partie disparu.
ProClim/OcCC (Hrsg.), 2005. Les contradictions entre les données de satellites et les températures mesurées à proximité du sol sont en grande partie éliminées. Climate Press. Informations au sujet de la recherche sur le climat et le changement global, no. 21.
> PDF (24 kB)

Widersprüche zwischen Satellitendaten und bodennahen Temperaturmessungen sind weitgehend ausgeräumt

Discrepancies between surface and lower troposphere temperature trends resolved
Detection of errors in data correction and artefacts resolves major discrepancy between model results and observation
The discrepancy between model results and observations of tropospheric temperature trends especially in the tropics has been one of the most important open questions concerning the quality of climate models. While the understanding of physical processes in the atmosphere and climate models both suggested a warming of the tropical troposphere slightly stronger than at the surface, observations both from satellites and radiosondes showed a slight tropospheric cooling, while the surface has warmed considerably. In the last few years, other groups have calculated trends from satellite data (Microwave Sounding Unit MSU) with different methods, resulting in higher global warming trends (between 0.13 and 0.24ºC per decade) similar to the trend at the surface (0.17ºC per decade). However, the different data processing and correction methods remained disputed.
Now new research published in Science (2 Sept) by Mears and Wentz (Science 309: 1548-1551) Santer et al. (Science 309: 1551-1556) and Sherwood et al. (Science 309: 1556-1559) demonstrates, that most probably errors in processing of satellite data and biases in radiosonde measurements are responsible for the discrepancies in the trends. New analyses of satellite data by Mears and Wentz show tropospheric warming trends slightly higher than at the surface. It has been detected, that the artifical trend due to the shift of the local equator crossing time in the traditional data set had been corrected erroneously in the wrong direction (opposite sign) in the UAH (Spencer/Christy) data set. After correction of this error, all satellite data sets now show tropospheric warming in the tropics. Updated Tropospheric temperature trends are now at 0.12 (UAH), 0.19 (Mears and Wentz), 0.20 (Fu et al., Nature 429:55) and 0.24ºC (Vinnikov and Grody, Science 302:269) per decade.
It has been known that radiosonde data is biased by daytime solar heating of instruments. This bias most probably has decreased over time due to development of better correction methods and thus produces an artificial cooling trend. Sherwood et al. show that there is a cooling trend in daytime compared to nighttime soundings which is much higher than can be explained by physical processes and than is observed at the surface. This probably artificial trend can explain the difference of radiosonde and surface trends. This conclusion is supported by the fact, that models and radiosonde observations are consistant at a monthly time scale and the difference only appears on the decadal timescale.


Various facets of a record holder
Extreme Summer 2003 - Forum and Workshop on July 7, 2005
(et) On 7 July a conference on the causes and effects of the summer 2003 was held in Bern, organized by ProClim, OcCC, GeoForumCH and ACP. About 120 participants took the opportunity to hear about the scientific findings from various fields. In the morning the presentations given dealt with topics of general interest and addressed scientists, the public authorities as well as the public. In the afternoon the topics of the presentations were concentrated on special subjects of scientific interest.

Jürg Luterbacher from the University of Bern discussed the summer 2003 in the context of the last 500 years. He showed climate reconstructions by means of measured as well as proxy data. Furthermore, Luterbacher pointed out that during June, July and August 2003 record temperatures had been reached.

Christoph Schär from ETH Zürich emphasized that extreme events like the summer 2003 are no proof for climate change. He showed, however, that human beings are likely to have at least doubled the risk for such a hot summer by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

André Prévôt from the Paul Scherrer Institut discussed the high ozone concentrations measured during summer 2003. An important factor in the formation of ozone is the temperature. High temperatures not only favour the emission of precursor substances, but also affect the balance of chemical reactions.

Wilfried Haeberli from the University of Zürich focussed on the impact of summer 2003 on glaciers and permafrost regions. First results of mass balance observations have shown that mean ice thickness losses reached new records in the Alps. Model calculations indicate that permafrost in rock faces above timberline thawed deeper than during the warm decades 1980-2000.

Hans-Rudolf Keusen from Geotest AG explored the increase in rock falls events during summer 2003. They occurred to a large part above 3000 m altitude mostly on rock faces with northern exposure. Keusen explained the rock falls by the melting of the ice in the crevices of such walls and the thereby resulting pressure caused by the water.

Ronald Kozel from the Federal Office for Water and Geology examined the effects of summer 2003 on ground water and water supply. He showed that - depending on the geological conditions - ground water levels hat been differently affected by the dry conditions. Whereas in some parts of Switzerland extremely low ground water levels had been reached, in others the impact had been far less severe.

Jürg Fuhrer from Agroscope FAL Reckenholz introduced the negative and positive impacts on Swiss agriculture. Whereas for berries and wine growth the conditions had been excellent, the dry conditions caused profit cuts in arable crops and scarcity in animal feed. In order to mitigate cases of hardship, the Federation had taken measures.

Claudio Defila from MeteoSchweiz explored the impact on phenology, that is on the seasonal development of plants. Defila pointed out that various stages of plant development occurred exceptionnally early. Thus, for instance, conkers bloomed about 10 to 15 days earlier than usually and grapes were gathered by mid-September instead of beginning to mid-October.

Charlotte Braun-Fahrländer from University of Basel discussed the impact on human beings. She showed and explained the increase in mortality due to heat. People over the age of 60 were most affected by the high temperatures. Braun-Fahrländer also emphasized that about 10 to 40% of the additional deaths had been caused by air pollution, and in particular by the high ozone concentrations.

At the end of the afternoon's session, during which more specific research findings were introduced, the scientists discussed the draft of a synthesis report which is planned to be published in late summer. This report addresses the interested public as well as public administration. It summarizes the most important findings of the research carried out so far concerning the impact of summer 2003.

Program of the conference with presentations:


Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change - Exeter Conference
How much more does the climate have to change before it becomes 'dangerous'?
The IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (2001) (TAR) concluded that there was strong evidence that climate change due to human emissions of greenhouse gases was already occurring and that future emissions of greenhouse gases were likely to raise global temperatures by between 1.4 and 5.8C during this century, with a wide range of impacts on the natural world and human society.
How much more does the climate have to change before it becomes 'dangerous'? This was one subject under discussion at the Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter, where an international scientific symposium on climate change has now drawn to a close.
The
conference, building on the TAR assessment, considered 3 scientific questions related to stabilising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at levels which would avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate change.
These were:

1. For different levels of climate change what are the key impacts, for different regions and sectors and for the world as a whole?

2. What would such levels of climate change imply in terms of greenhouse gas stabilisation concentrations and emission pathways required to achieve such levels?

3. What options are there for achieving stabilisation of greenhouse gases at different stabilisation concentrations in the atmosphere, taking into account costs and uncertainties?

The report of the conference is available here.
> Link


Fun and Climate Change - do they go together?
«Keep Cool», a board game about climate change
The board game about climate change was developed by two scientists at the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, and is helping to initialise a dialogue between science and society at large. In «Keep Cool - Gambling with the Climate» the players take on the role of powerful protagonists and make their own decisions about climate policy. They take part in international climate negotiations and learn about important interrelations of climate change.

In a game of «Keep Cool«, three to six players aged twelve and above represent groups of countries such as Europe, OPEC, or the developing countries. For one to two hours they can choose between «black» and «green» growth, but also adapt to inevitable climate impacts like droughts or floods. The strength of these increases when world temperature rises. Additionally, lobby groups like the oil industry or environmental groups have to be taken into account. The winner is the player who most efficiently reconciles climate protection with lobby interests. If some players are too ruthless, everybody loses.

With simple rules the game illustrates different facets of climate change which may seem a bit remote from everyday life, for example global warming, renewable energies or climate conferences. Players can learn more about climate change and the background of the game by consulting the scientific booklet. Thus, «Keep Cool» is suitable for use in communicating scientific ideas and in raising environmental awareness. The game is a part of teaching material about climate change which is being developed by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) in collaboration with the Zeitbild Verlag, in connection with the PISA 2006 student assessment.

«Keep Cool» contains the expertise of economists and climate and political scientists, because collaboration between different disciplines is fundamental for research about global environmental change. But for all that, the players should also have fun playing «Keep Cool» even if they are not climate experts.

Ordering:
«Keep Cool» can be ordered from the publisher, Spieltrieb, for 22.95 Euros from 1st November. It contains one large game board, one «world thermometer«, nearly fifty cards, more than one hundred wooden tokens in different colours and more.
http://www.spieltriebgbr.de,

Developers of the game and Contacts:
Dr. Gerhard Petschel-Held, Tel. +49/331-288-2513, E-Mail gerhard.petschel@pik-potsdam.de
Klaus Eisenack, Tel. +49/331/288-2625, E-Mail klaus.eisenack@pik-potsdam.de

Source: News of the PIK, Potstam Institute for Climate Impact Research
> Link



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Lokale Klimatrends in der Schweiz
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Lokale Klimatrends in der Schweiz